KYIV—Hi everyone. Bit of a shorter issue this week, with just three highlighted stories and reports—about a small-time politician spreading conspiracy theories about mobilization; Ukraine’s economic situation; and the country’s “news deserts”. In case you haven’t been reading this newsletter for a long time, you can also find at the end a selection of stories published by Western legacy media over the weekend. Have a good week!
Something to read
Babel (in Ukrainian) | Who is Ostap Stakhiv, the failed politician and anti-vaccine activist who created an anti-mobilization network | February 28
Working last month in the Cherkasy region on a story about the impact of mobilization in Ukraine’s countryside, one local man laid down for me a singular theory: the entire mobilization process is illegal, he said, because Ukraine still has not officially declared a state of war and because recruitment centers do not report to the military but are, in fact, private companies. The mobilization process being illegal allows, according to him, the Defense Ministry to skirt its obligations towards injured soldiers or families of soldiers killed in action.
None of this is true. But rumors and conspiracy theories have become across Ukraine an inescapable part of the debate on mobilization, with unscrupulous political entrepreneurs feeding off and exacerbating genuine grievances about a process that is often perceived as unfair and corrupt. This piece from Ukrainian outlet Babel centers on Ostap Stakhiv, a small-time politician from Lviv who switched from coronavirus conspiracies to mobilization discontent, setting up a network of Telegram channels as well as seminars allowing people to learn—for a fee—how to circumvent mobilization. One of those seminars included the claim that the country’s recruitment centers are actually departments of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea working for the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic.
Ostap Stakhiv isn’t the first person mentioned in this newsletter who, during the Covid pandemic, gained some fame by forcing his way into hospitals without a mask to “prove” Covid doesn’t exist—the first one was Kyrylo Stremousov, a Kherson pro-Russian activist who became the head of the local Russian occupation administration after the capture of the city and ultimately died in a car crash a few days before the Ukrainian military liberated the city. Ostap Stakhiv and Kyrylo Stremousov knew each other and met on several occasions, Babel reports. Small world.
German Economic Team (GET) | Economic resilience in focus | February 2024
A periodic reminder that Ukraine’s economic situation will in large part decide the outcome of this war. “Real GDP is estimated to increase by 5.2% in 2023 after it contracted by 28.8% in 2022” writes the GET, a think-tank financed by the German Ministry for Economic Affairs. “However, Ukraine remains far from a recovery. The economy will stand 21% below pre-war levels [...] In 2024, fiscal situation will remain difficult. Domestic resources will be sufficient to cover defense and security spending under the assumption of continued military assistance from international partners. [...] If international financial assistance in 2024 will be lower than planned in the budget, the Government will have difficulty in paying on its key spending priorities.”
Media Development Foundation | Ukraine’s News Deserts | March
An interesting report about local media (a favorite topic of this newsletter) and, more specifically, how well 11 frontline and border regions are served by independent local media. Two years into the Russian invasion, the situation isn’t that bad—most of the districts not currently occupied by Russian forces are rated “healthy” or “partially healthy”, meaning there’s at least one independent media in the area.
In terms of trends, the report’s authors highlight the importance of Suspilne, the country’s public broadcaster, and its regional branches. They also note the stark contrast between the Kharkiv region (14 independent newsrooms) and the Dnipropetrovsk region (7 independent media), which I think highlights the dynamism of Kharkiv’s civil society. Some occupied areas still have independent media—but as they are working in exile, and are often blocked by Russian authorities, it is very difficult to assess whether they’re still serving those communities. It’s in general problematic to only focus on traditional media since, even in the tiniest, most isolated villages, people now heavily rely on social networks and Telegram channels to get their news (with predictable consequences in terms of rumors and conspiracies, as the Babel story shows).
ICYMI
Stories from legacy Western media published over the week-end (and today)
The New York Times / ‘It’s a Way of Life’: Women Make Their Mark in the Ukrainian Army
Bloomberg / The $1 Trillion Race to Rebuild Ukraine Is Slowly Getting Going
Financial Times / French defence companies to put down roots in Ukraine
The Japan Times / In war’s third year, Ukrainians in Japan still face daily trials
Politico / Pope’s ‘white flag’ gaffe triggers outrage in Ukraine
The Guardian / ‘I feel like I’m in Sex and the City’ – the women who fled Ukraine to start anew
The Washington Post / Russia’s air power roars back into the war with devastating guided bombs
The Wall Street Journal / With Just 15 People Left, a Ukrainian Village Starts to Rebuild
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