Eastern Radar #16
Google Maps in the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict, making money in the Donetsk People’s Republic, elite response to protests in Russia, cool maps of Kyiv and more
Beeps
Two threads worth checking out on Twitter this week: journalist Slava Malamud talks about being a teenager when the Soviet Union drew its last breath, and researcher Artyom Lukin discusses Moscow’s attempt to solve its pandemic-induced fish crisis in the Far East. As for podcasts, RFE/RL wonders what Turkey is doing in Central Asia.
In other news:
🕰️ There are still 218,000 families living in 65,000 communal apartments in Saint Petersburg.
🏗️ Russia is facing a property shortage as “almost every region has run out of available flats” according to the country’s ministry of construction.
🚂 Ukrainian outlet Zaborona explores a train line between the Ukrainian and Polish border that is falling into disrepair.
👜 Russia’s Penitentiary Service denied claims that detainees in a jail of the Ulyanovsk region were sewing handbags that would later be sold by Dolce & Gabbana.
Under the Radar
On the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, the map is not the territory
Evangeline McGlynn | Eurasianet | March 15 | 1,300 words
In mid-December, a reporter for Sputnik Armenia came across a curious scene in the southern town of Kapan: an excavator digging a trench that, he said, was marking the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The journalist asked another man at the scene to explain where he was digging, and the man pulled out his phone and showed the reporter Google Maps and a line marking the border. “We are here, got it,” the reporter said as the camera focused on the little blue dot on the web map.
Formal demarcation discussions between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia began on November 26, but the process has not been well-publicized save for its more controversial results. Along with the sudden creation of new frontier towns, the border has thus far cut through a gold mine, sliced off part of a village, and so closely abuts the runway of a newly renovated regional airport that flight patterns might have to change. But how do we know where the “real” border is? The process is mired in difficult technical issues.
Andrey Prakh | Kommersant | March 20 | 2,500 words
This weekend, Yakutsk will see its third mayoral elections in five years. Back in 2018, a protest vote carried the independent candidate Sardana Avksentieva to the position, along with the (unofficial) title of “people’s mayor” and the glory of having beaten a United Russia candidate. But she resigned two and a half years later, leaving the position to United Russia politician Yevgeny Grigoriev, who is now running under the slogan "Politics aside!" Kommersant correspondent Andrei Prakh watched as local authorities attempt to get a “strong business owner” elected as mayor while the opposition tries to repeat the 2018 scenario.
Dmitry Durnev | Spektr | March 8 | 4,000 words
Roman (the name was changed) considers himself a very prudent person — he resigned from Ukraine’s Ministry of interior affairs just in time, as the conflict in the country’s east was picking up steam. Thus, neither Ukraine nor the DNR included him on their wanted lists. But as a former officer enjoying contacts with the authorities and migration services on both sides of the frontline, Roman was able to start a business helping pensioners to receive their pensions in Ukrainian-controlled territories without the elderly people needing to leave separatist-controlled Donetsk. Roman’s people filled all the proper paperwork and withdrew money from the frontline ATMs, meaning the pensioners didn’t have to make the tiresome and sometimes dangerous trip through the checkpoints. Back in 2017 however, Roman’s entire business collapsed in one day.
Photo: How does the Belarusian village of Shalovichi look like on a sunny day [RU]
Alexandra Shagoyko | Kurjer | March 20 | 30 words
Research & General Nerdistry
Local history buff Petr Semiletov has on its website a fantastic collection of Kyiv maps from 1650 to 1991, some of which are in amazingly-high resolution.
Elite response to protest in authoritarian settings: evidence from Russia 🔒
James D. Bryan, Anastassiya Perevezentseva | Democratization | March 2021
Scholars of contentious politics understand the critical role of opposition protests and the elite in influencing regime outcomes. What is less understood, however, is how opposition protest can impact the “hearts and minds” of elites in authoritarian settings. Using the timing of the Survey of Russian Elites and a 2016 protest in Moscow to commemorate the death of a Russian opposition figure, we show that elites initially responded with sympathy to the peaceful and well-attended protest, but those feelings faded in the weeks following the event. We attribute the ephemeral nature of the protest’s impact to a successful strategy by the Kremlin to acknowledge the event and then promptly ignore it in the following weeks. We posit this allowed the event to leave the consciousness of most elites and their feelings returned to pre-protest levels. Our findings suggest that certain opposition protests can garner sympathy among the elite in authoritarian settings, but also highlight the passive tools of authoritarian regimes in minimizing the impact of protest movements.
Is the regional divide in Ukraine an identity divide? 🔒
Lowell Barrington | Eurasian Geography and Economics | March 2021
A large body of research has identified regional divisions as an important factor in understanding variation in political attitudes and behaviors in Ukraine. This article focuses on the extent to which regional divisions in Ukraine represent a key identity divide. Drawing on unique data from a national survey of residents of Ukraine, quantitative and qualitative evidence indicates that many respondents see their region as an important part of their identity and that the reasons why they do fall into identifiable categories. At the same time, the findings point to challenges in conceptualizing the region in Ukraine as an identity type. These include its contested nature, reflected in a deep divide between those who consider “region” to mean their oblast and those who see it as representing a larger area of Ukraine. These results shed new light on Ukraine’s regional divisions and may help explain why the country’s notable “regional effect” has not translated into identity-based mobilization along regional lines.
Article review: “The War Scare That Wasn’t: Able Archer 83 and the Myths of the Second Cold War.” 🔓
Joseph Torigian | H-Diplo | March 2021
The new article by Simon Miles about the NATO Able Archer exercise in 1983 is not just a major contribution because it further corrects the record of another Cold War ‘myth.’ It is also a serious accomplishment because he goes into great detail on the origin of the myth, its significance, and its persistence. Readers will not only come away with a better understanding of the event itself, but also the use and misuse of sources. As Miles correctly notes, because nuclear crises (or faux crises) are so rare, we should do our best to accurately understand what happened, and this article should be required reading for political scientists who are interested in the latest historiography. Miles does not explicitly ask whether Able Archer is a ‘good’ or ‘bad’ case for testing the nuclear taboo and strategic stability, although his new book provides more details on this question. Ultimately, however, “The War Scare That Wasn’t” is a powerful case study of nuclear history at its best.