Analysis & Academic #2
Hello everyone,
Featured in this week’s issue is one article from the journal “Museum and Society” about the evacuations of Donbas museums in the first months of the Russian invasion. It’s a great article, but I want to point out that the entire issue it’s taken from is dedicated to Ukraine—that’s 10 articles about Ukrainian museums and culture during the war, every single one available in open access.
Two podcasts also worth checking out this week: War on the Rocks looks at the Ukrainian counteroffensive with Michael Kofman (1st part) and Rob Lee (2d part), while Chatham House asks how China views Ukraine.
Op-eds & Analyses
Admitting Ukraine will be the EU’s biggest geopolitical contribution to the war
Politico Europe | Mujtaba Rahman | July 26
The question of EU budget funds is equally profound. Currently, the largest outflows from Brussels to member countries are cohesion funds for economic convergence and agricultural subsidies under the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Together they make up roughly two-thirds of the budget. But for now, there’s still no agreement on the budgetary implications of Ukraine joining the bloc. Senior German officials who have studied the numbers suggest all EU countries that currently benefit from the budget would become net contributors to it. Other EU capitals argue the financial flows would essentially remain status quo — but that seems unlikely.
How Energy Misregulation Threatens Ukraine’s Electricity Sector
Wilson Center | Andrian Prokip | July 19
War in Ukraine Makes Just Transition on Energy More Urgent
Foreign Policy in Focus | Simon Pirani | July 24
The War That Defied Expectations
Foreign Affairs | Phillips O’Brien | July 27
In fact, the entire shape of the war is very different from what experts imagined. Rather than the fast-moving conflict led by phalanxes of armored vehicles, supported by Russia’s advanced piloted aircraft, that the analytical community imagined, the invasion was chaotic and slow. There has never been a quick armored breakthrough by the Russians and only one by the Ukrainians—last September’s surprise advance in the province of Kharkiv. Instead, almost all of the war’s gains have come gradually and at great expense. The conflict has been defined not by fighter jets and tanks but by artillery, drones, and even World War I–style trenches.
Russia, Ukraine, and Poland: The End of a Tragic Triangle
Carnegie | René Nyberg | July 28
How Frozen Russian Assets Could Pay for Rebuilding in Ukraine
Council on Foreign Relations | Jonathan Masters | July 24
Research articles
Open-access articles are marked ✅
'This Happened to Us for the Second Time': War-preparedness, Risk, Responsibility and the Evacuation of Donbas Museums in 2022
Museum and Society | Diána Vonnák | ✅
My interview with the director of the Kharkiv Literature Museum indicates efficient contact with the Ministry. She received permission online to evacuate, having spoken to the Ministry directly.16 Staff of the local Culture Department left and Tetiana Pylypchuk succeeded in evacuating the collection, relying on the support of the military and the Ukrainian railway company Ukrzaliznytsia. Pylypchuk’s actions were informed by a long-term proactive stance: in the months before the invasion, when Russian troops moved close to the Ukrainian border, she purchased packaging materials and determined which were the most important items to be saved. She was guided by a sense that, with its valuable Ukrainian-language manuscripts that testify to the Ukrainian history of Kharkiv, her museum would be a high-priority target.18
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the reproductive health of female military personnel
International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics | Anastasia Serbeniuk, Viacheslav Kaminskiy, Yana Kumpanenko, Alla Vash-Margita, Iryna Malysheva
Female soldiers with post-concussive syndrome (PCS) had a 1.3 times higher likelihood (P < 0.015) of experiencing longer menstrual periods. Painful menstruation was 1.47 times more frequent (P < 0.001), and heavy periods were 1.64 times more common (P < 0.003). Infertility duration in concussed women was 5.36 ± 0.13 years, whereas those with PCS experienced 1.29 times longer duration (6.02 ± 0.21 years) (P < 0.001) compared with women without PCS (4.69 ± 0.13 years). Among concussed soldiers, 69.27% had endometrial structural pathology, with PCS occurring 1.64 times more often (P < 0.001).
European attitudes to refugees after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
West European Politics | Alexandru D. Moise, James Dennison, Hanspeter Kriesi | ✅
Putting Medical Boots on the Ground: Lessons from the War in Ukraine and Applications for Future Conflict with Near-Peer Adversaries
Journal of the American College of Surgeons | Aaron Epstein, Robert Lim, Jay Johannigman, Charles Fox & others | ✅
Statistics shared by Ukrainian physicians demonstrate that more than 70% of all Ukrainian combat casualties are due to artillery and rocket barrages from Russian forces, which has resulted in significant polytrauma to multiple organ systems. By comparison, in most recent non-NPA conflicts, soldiers who sustained injuries to the thoracic and abdominal cavities could survive if concomitant injuries to extremities and the rest of the body were limited.23 In Ukraine, Russia’s weapons have led to more devastating injuries to a larger number of soldiers in any given attack. In a retrospective analysis of 100 patients treated by Ukrainian military surgeons operating within 5 km of the front line, the average Injury Severity Scores exceeded 36 in victims of such barrage artillery and rocket attacks. Common mechanisms of injury include multiple high-velocity penetrating injuries, barotrauma, and blunt injuries from being thrown during the explosion, and traumatic brain injuries.
Reflexive Control as a Risk Factor for Using OSINT: Insights from the Russia–Ukraine Conflict
International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence | Illia Varzhanskyi | ✅