Ukrainska Pravda published on April 11 an extensive conversation with Taras Chmut, a prominent civil society figure and the head of “Come Back Alive”, one of the biggest Ukrainian organizations supporting the military.
Chmut is known as a no-nonsense and realist pundit, and this interview didn’t stray from that: the headline quote emphasized his view that mobilization should take place as early as 20 years old (only men 25 and above can currently be drafted); he estimated that, based on its current resources and Western help, Ukraine could fight 2 to 5 more years “if we move to total defense”; pondered whether Ukraine had lost an opportunity to negotiate from a position of strength following the 2022 Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensive; And wrote, in the social media post linking to the interview, that “it is time to start talking and living the reality —the unpleasant and sad reality— that we're not winning this war.”
Yet, Chmut’s somber assessment of the current situation didn’t really led to the kind of shock and backlash such comments would have likely received a year ago. The interview did generate a lot of discussion, but no accusations of defeatism. “If this interview is like a wake-up call for you, you should change your sources of information” Vasyl Zadvornyy, one of the architects of the Ukrainian public tender system ProZorro, wrote on Facebook. But I suspect the interview hasn’t been a wake-up call for that many people, in a country that has been discussing these issues for several months already (albeit usually not so openly). What Chmut said is now common enough that a standing politician like deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk can on her Facebook account commend a “sober, appropriate and timely interview”—despite Chmut’s blasting in that same interview the “inefficiency” of the current government strategy.
What did generate controversy wasn’t Chmut’s view on negotiations with Russia, or his take that Ukraine is “not winning” the war, but the headline quote about the need to mobilize men as young as 20 years old. MP Oleksiy Honcharenko blasted the idea, claiming that “defeating Russia using people cannot be achieved”. On TV, Oleksandr Hladun, the deputy director of the Institute for Demography and Social Research pointed out how mobilizing this generation could worsen an already catastrophic demographic situation: “In 2001, we had the lowest birth rate in the history of Ukraine. If we take the year 2001 plus or minus 5 years, that is, 10 years, then this contingent is the smallest in terms of number in the age structure.”
Meanwhile, on social networks, dozens of posts linking to Chmut’s take on mobilization rather than the full interview attracted hundreds of comments, with many calling on politicians to send their sons to the frontline first. The three most liked comments on Iryna Vereshchuk’s post praising Chmut’s interview are all about mobilization and its perceived unfairness (“Irina Vereshchuk, you generally say the right things. Do you support Chmut's words about mobilization starting at 20 years old? Because if someone wants to risk the life of other people's children, he has to start with himself, and risk his own life first” reads one of those comments).
Further highlighting the gap was a poll published by public broadcaster Suspilne a few days before the interview showing that just 20% of civilian men aged 25-29 were considering joining the military.
It is now, I think, understood even in the West that mobilization is an incredibly sensitive and difficult topic, and the reaction to Chmut’s statement was but one illustration of this. Two days after the interview’s publication, a talk show on Ukrainian TV triggered a massive scandal after former deputy Defense minister Hanna Malyar voiced her opposition to demobilization. When MP Inna Sovsun countered that her husband had already been fighting for two years with almost no break, Malyar answered that he should have read the Constitution which “clearly” said that demobilization cannot happen during martial law. The footage of Sovsun brought to tears by Malayr’s answer spread like wildfire across social media.
Malyar (who later apologized) faced a barrage of united criticism from activists, politicians across the political spectrum, society as a whole and the military in particular. I’ll highlight this angry and saddened reaction from Artem Chekh, a Ukrainian writer who volunteered to join the military in the early days of the Russian invasion : “our boys and girls deserve to rest. Not just to leave on rotation, not just a break back to base, but a real rest. They say ‘if we demobilize you, we will lose everything’. But you will lose everything, and you’re already losing everything. Families, life, love, joy. Have some respect for those who saved you from death or exile”.